Employment situation — worst since Great Depression — or least bad? Depends who you ask; how you count it

Employment Policy Foundation (EPF) reports: Job Losses in 2001 Recession Second-Lowest Since 1930.

Some of the facts cited:

“Average annual employment, as measured by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), declined 0.3 percent in 2001. The 2001 decline compares with employment declines of 0.1 percent in 1992, 1.1 percent in 1991, 1.7 percent in 1982 and 2.1 percent in 1975—the previous four job loss years. Twelve other years between 1930 and 1974 showed declines ranging from 0.4 percent and 9.1 percent in annual average lost employment.”

“Employment in July 2003 was 99.8 percent of its pre-recession peak in March 2001.”

“While the economy lost 1.8 million jobs in 2001 because of the recession, it created 648,000 new jobs in 2002.”

“BEA data also showed an increase in employment in 2002 of 1.2 percent—just slightly below the long-term average, since 1930, of 1.56 percent. In recent years, employment growth fluctuations have moderated and become more stable. Since 1992, the peak growth was 2.6 percent with no declines greater than 0.3 percent. Over the pervious 20 years growth peaked at 4.8 percent with the largest decline being 1.7 percent. Fluctuations in the 1930s, 40s and 50s were larger with a range from 9.9 percent to -9.1 percent.”

On the other hand, AFL-CIO says: “Jobless and underemployed workers are suffering the worst job slump since the Great Depression.”

Some of the facts cited: “This is only the second recovery since World War II in which unemployment has not yet started to fall 29 months into a recovery.”

“The portion of underemployed workers—those working fewer hours than they want or in jobs for which they are overqualified—reached 10.2 percent in July 2003.”

It could well be that the price of a shallow recession is a slow recovery.

It’s obviously a fascinating, complex picture that cannot be fully captured in any one statistic (or even two or three). Pity that “the economy” will be such a campaign issue, while most Americans will only get little sound bites that are spun one way or the other (mostly against Bush).

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