Employment plays key role in Bush immigration reform plan

FindLaw (Reuters) reports:“Legal News - Bush to Propose Temporary Worker Program.”

“Hoping to attract more Hispanic support for his re-election bid, President Bush on Wednesday will propose a temporary worker program to help millions of immigrants work legally in the United States, officials said.”

Immigrants could enter the US legally if jobs were waiting for them. Undocumented workers already in the US could move toward legal status (Bush rejects the proposals for a blanket amnesty).

Illegal immigrants in the country and those seeking to find work in the United States would be eligible for jobs Americans did not want, once employers showed the jobs could not be filled by Americans. . . .

“The president believes that America should be a welcoming society,” [a presidential spokesman] said. “We are a nation of immigrants, and our nation is better for it.” . . .

Bush’s re-election team would like to increase Hispanic support for a second term for the president, particularly in states where they could tip the balance in his favor, such as Florida and California.

Hispanics have traditionally been part of the Democratic base. Democrat Al Gore beat Bush by 66 percent to 32 percent among the Hispanic electorate in the 2000 election. . . .

Any legislative proposal would likely run into opposition from conservatives on Capitol Hill who are particularly concerned about border security.

Here are the Washington Post and Christian Science Monitor articles on this development.

The Monitor, at the bottom of its story, after all the human interest and politics angles, summarizes key provisions of the plan, including that “undocumented workers who gained temporary-worker status would enjoy the rights and protections of legal workers. They could also apply for green cards, which convey permanent residency and, potentially, citizenship.” Other key provisions include that “The employer must show no Americans wanted the job” and “Temporary workers would get all the same protections afforded US workers.”

Predictably, according to the Monitor, nobody is happy with the proposal, which means it may be a good compromise:

“Immigrant-rights groups are not entirely satisfied. One concern is that if the plan does not greatly expand the number of green cards . . . undocumented workers could face an extended wait [and] [i]f their guest-worker status expired before they received a green card, they would have to leave the country.”

“Anti-immigration groups criticize the initiative for its potential to hurt US workers.” “‘From our perspective, American workers have become sacrificial lambs for the Bush reelection campaign,’ says David Ray, with the Federation for American Immigration Reform in Washington. ‘We are in the middle of a jobless recovery…. To push for a guest-worker program at a time like this is unfathomable.’”

Here’s the position statement from Federation for American Immigration Reform, containing what appear to be some very legitimate criticisms of the plan, most notably that it really is an amnesty program, but just avoids using the word “amnesty.”

The Post article reports what may be a significant loophole: “The program is designed to match willing foreign workers with willing U.S. employers when no American can be found to fill those jobs. But if an immigrant is already working in the United States, that requirement will be considered fulfilled.”

Certainly, the requirement that no American can be found willing to perform the job makes common sense and is designed to appease those who whine about foreign workers stealing Americans’ jobs. Enforcing it seems a nightmare, but simply assuming that if a foreign worker has taken the job this requirement is met does not appear fair or rational.

As I have previously said, I’m strongly opposed to rewarding illegal behavior, including illegal immigration. On the other hand, I believe globalization is inevitable, and with it a worldwide labor market for many types of work. Reasonably opening up legal immigration may save more American jobs than it loses, if it allows work to be performed here using less expensive immigrant labor (as well as willing Americans) rather than being exported, and the immigrants spend much of their earnings here, having a generally beneficial impact on the economy.

Politically, this move again shows Bush is not a dummy. While some core Republican constituents (e.g. Southern working-class) will disapprove, it is unlikely to cause them to switch their vote. On the other hand, it may very well succeed in buying a significant number of Hispanic votes.

Prediction: we will not see this legislation enacted before the election, enabling Bush to get the credit for making the proposal and blame the Democrats for stalling (no dummy).

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